Ernesto Near Hurricane Strength

Ernesto 2 pm Update

Ernesto Set To Soak Mid-Atlantic, We're Drying Out

More than 12" of rain could fall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states as Ernesto heads north. This morning the storm has 50 mph sustained winds, and with 18+ hours over the warm waters of the Atlantic, this could be a minimal hurricane by the next landfall near Charleston, SC. Whether or not it gets that strong isn't as important as the slug of moisture heading that way.
Our weather will be wettest east of I-75 today where some locations have seen around an inch during the overnight hours. Another inch of rain is possible in the Blue Ridge Mountains. But drier air is clearing the skies from Nashville to Memphis right now, and that drier air is heading for us. So enjoy a pretty nice Labor Day weekend in the Tennessee Valley.

Today: Scattered showers and a few storms. Heaviest rainfall east of I-75. High:85

Tonight: Showers mainly east of the city. Mostly cloudy overnight with a low of 69.

Friday: Partly cloudy with only a 20% chance for a pop-up shower. High: 84

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance for a pop-up shower. High: 80

Sunday: Mostly sunny and less humid. High: 83

Monday: Mostly sunny and comfortable. High: 85

Ernesto Back To Tropical Storm

5 pm Wed Ernesto Update

Ernesto 2pm Advisory

Ernesto Now A Depression

Ernesto Latest And A Look At Our Labor Day

A big slug of rain is going to be moving north from Florida today right up the east coast into the Labor Day weekend. But most of this will end up well to our east. And as Ernesto pulls away from us, I think our dewpoints will be dropping to near 60 by Sunday and Monday so things will be more comfortable for the end of the holiday weekend.

Today: Sun and clouds across the area with showers and storms once again becoming more numerous during the afternoon hours as the next front eases across the area. High: 88

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a few showers through the overnight. Low: 70

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance for scattered storms, mainly east of I-75. High: 86

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance for some storms, again mainly to our east. High: 84

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance for a pop-up storm. High: 85

Sunday: Partly cloudy with highs near 86

Labor Day: Fair to Partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Ernesto 2 AM Information

Ernesto 11 pm Information

5 pm Ernesto Post

I was away from computers for quite awhile today, so this post is a little behind schedule. But the satellite and radar image are worth the wait. It will be interesting to see how long Ernesto stays over water once he's done with Florida.

Ernesto Latest

Where Will Ernesto's Moisture End Up?

This morning marks the one year anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane "Katrina", which will be one of those "Where were you?" events in our lives. I hope there are not many more in my lifetime. Looking back at the final report some people forget that this was a double landfalling hurricane like "Andrew". And "Katrina" was deadly as a Category 1 storm in Florida. Here are some of the storm stats:

• Florida landfall on August 25th, 2005 as a Category 1 with 80 mph winds.
• Louisiana landfall on August 29th, 2005 as a Category 3 with 121 mph winds.
• Maximum intensity on August 28th as a Category 5 with incredible 167 mph winds.
• At the time, the central pressure of 902 mb was the 4th lowest recorded in the Atlantic basin. "Rita" and "Wilma" would eventually push "Katrina" down the list to 6th lowest.
• Maximum storm surge was 24 to 28 feet in Mississippi over an area 20 miles wide.
• An estimated 1833 fatalities, directly or indirectly from the storm. Which makes "Katrina" 4th or 5th deadliest in U.S. history.
• $81 Billion estimated damages insured, and uninsured. Making "Katrina" the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Double the destruction of "Andrew" even when inflation is factored in.

"Ernesto" is the only tropical system close to home right now, and it is a 45 mph tropical storm this morning. There are two possibilities for this storm to become a hurricane. 1) Before landfall in Florida. 2) Over the Gulf Stream off the coast of Georgia or the Carolinas. The official intensity from the National Hurricane Center would take "Ernesto" into south Florida as a strong tropical storm nearing hurricane strength. So it's not out of the question a category 1 hits there. And this storm could re-intensify once it moves out over water in the Atlantic.

This storm has been trending east from day one, and I wouldn't be surprised if the path is on the eastern side of the forecast "cone" by days three through five. The farther east, the less rain we'll see. And that could pave the way for a very pleasant Labor Day weekend here. So we will be tracking this storm closely into the weekend here in the Channel 3 Storm Alert Center.

Today: Enough sunshine to push highs into the upper 80s this afternoon. Showers and storms become numerous this afternoon.

Tonight: Cloudy with occasional showers. Low: 73

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with scattered showers and storms. High: 86

Thursday: Partly cloudy with 30% for storms, mainly east of the city. High: 85

Friday: Partly cloudy with 20% for storms, mainly east of I-75. High: 84

Saturday: Partly cloudy. (And less humid?) High: 85

2 AM Ernesto Update