Thankful For What We Don't Have.

While on a walk in the woods or a dive along the bottom, I can sometimes overlook the small things while scanning the overall scene for the big stuff. Before I took this picture, I was marveling at the tulip poplars, the red buds, and the dogwoods. When right at my feet the violets were putting on a pretty nice display on a different scale.
And so it is with weather forecasting. You always have to search for the little weather features while examining the big picture.
This morning I'm reminded that we are thankful for what we don't have and that's flooding. On this date 3 years ago we had ongoing coverage of historic flooding across the Tennessee Valley. The rain was stopping on May 8th, 2003, but not before inundating some locations with 10" to 15". Here's a look back at what fell at Lovell Field in Chattanooga:

• May 5th 2.45"
• May 6th 3.28"
• May 7th 1.60"
• May 8th .02"
• Total 7.35"

As of this morning we are:

• + .03" for May
• -2.52" Since March 1st
• -5.53" Since January 1st

But these numbers aren't really that meaningful as long as we continue to have 1/2" to 1" on average, every week to 10 days during the growing season. As long as we can keep that kind of pace, lawns and gardens will be fine. At this point you really don't want to make up a paper drought of 5". That could put us back into a 2003 situation. (Dry spells build up over time, but they are rarely reversed that gradually.)

So what's ahead? Morning fog burns off and this afternoon we'll go partly cloudy with highs near 76. Patchy fog is once again possible Tuesday morning. And much of the day on Tuesday will be dry. If you look at the small stuff, you'll see a slim chance for an afternoon shower tomorrow, but I think significant rain won't show up until Tuesday night and Wednesday. Then I think this system will pull out leaving Thursday afternoon through Saturday dry. Another system stirs up some showers on Mother's Day as it dives down on us from the northwest.

This week's rainfall quota could be met Tuesday night through early Thursday with 3/4" to 1" on average across the area.