Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Easing Into Summer Temps - 200th Post

It's the odometer syndrome again. I'm one of those who watches the "big" miles turn over, so I suppose this is a milepost of sorts. This is the 200th post on Fishyweather. Thanks Jeff for getting me started.
I mowed the lawn yesterday in a sweatshirt while the temp at the house was only 57. ("How many times will this happen in mid May?", I thought to myself.) I think lawn services will be going bananas trying to keep up with mowing over the next two weeks as the moisture in the ground and warmer, sunnier weather takes over.
Pretty foggy in some areas early this morning with visibilities down to less than 1/4 mile in some cases. But once that burns off we'll have partly cloudy skies this afternoon with highs in the lower 70s. We'll still have a slight chance for a spotty storm this afternoon.
Thursday should be a tad warmer with partly cloudy skies and a slight risk of an afternoon storm. Highs on Thursday around 76.
Friday looks like a toss-up. One model has a batch of showers and storms swinging through early Friday morning into early afternoon. Another model says a slight chance with lower rainfall amounts. We'll see how this looks tomorrow morning, but right now I'm going with the idea that skies will be partly cloudy with a few storms popping mainly during the afternoon and evening. Highs on Friday should top out around 77.
Saturday and Sunday look partly cloudy with slight chances each afternoon. Highs both days in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Long range looks interesting in several areas. First beastly heat may develop from West Texas into the Four Corners starting Sunday and lasting into the middle of next week. So of this heat heads our way, and that's why I think it's possible to end up in the mid 80s the middle of next week. This seems reasonable from a climate standpoint as our average highs by then are around 81. So we could end up 3 or 4 degrees above average rather than 10 to 15 degrees below average.
And lately the GFS model has been hooked on the idea something suspiciously tropical develops in the Gulf and heads towards the Florida Panhandle and Central Gulf Coast. The last three runs have picked up on this feature which arrives down there Monday the 29th, and sticks around the Deep South through Friday, June 2nd. This blob of rain may turn out to be a blip in the model and never happen, but Gulf waters are warm and a low could form even if it never becomes a depression or named system. It will be interesting to watch to see if the GFS is sniffing out something real or not.

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